NBA Playoffs Picks and MLB Picks for April 16-19, 2008

10* WISEGUY on Utah Jazz +1 -110 (April 19, 2008)
UTAH is 17-3 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record during the 2nd half of the season this season. UTAH is 16-6 ATS after 2 straight games giving up 10 or less offensive rebounds this season and they are 16-3 ATS versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots per game during the 2nd half of the season this season. There is a lot of hype around the Houston Rockets and that big run they went on towards the end of the regular season, but the NBA playoffs are an all new game and the Jazz are the most under rated team in the leage this year. I expect to see Utah win this game straight up by at least 5 points.

5* Best Bet on Los Angeles Dodgers -115 (April 18,2008)
The Dodgers bring their stud to the mound tonight in Derek Lowe. He will face off against an Atlanta team that is 2-8 against the money line in night games this season. Obviously the starting pitcher match up favors the Dodgers, and the bullpen does too. The LA DODGERS are 58-33 against the money line vs. a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse over the last 3 seasons. Atlanta is coming in at 5.19 ERA overall and 4.94 in home games. On the other side we have a Dodgers bullpen with a 3.44 ERA. The Dodgers will take this game by several runs.

5* Best Bet on Detroit Tigers +115 (April 17, 2008)
It has been a rocky start to the season for Verlander, the starting pitcher for Detroit. However, VERLANDER is 25-6 against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. Verlander's ERA may not look good this season but that doesn't count the Tigers out. Cleveland is only a .500 team against AL starting pitchers whose ERA is 6.20 or worse since 1997. DETROIT is 17-6 against the money line in road games vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 2 seasons.

5* Best Bet on St Louis Cardinals -120 (April 17, 2008)
MILWAUKEE is 2-13 against the money line in road games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits per start over the last 2 seasons. LOHSE is 30-12 for Saint Louis against the money line in home games vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game since 1997 and he is 13-3 against the money line facing division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

7* LOCK on Mets/Nationals OVER 9 -110 (April 17, 2008)
NY METS are 58-38 OVER against left-handed starters over the last 3 seasons and that is averaging almost 7 runs per game this season. The Mets alone may score 9 in this game. Considering the Nationals score more points on the road than anywhere else 9 points is too low for this total. Expect a lot of runs in a game that may end up being a close one.

10* WISEGUY on Orlando Magic -7 -110 (April 16, 2008)
With the playoffs being all locked up I find it hard to believe much effort will go into the remaining regular season games for these NBA teams. This brings a great opportunity to find value in a line. The Orlando Magic are one of the best home teams in the league at 23-15 ATS and averaging almost 105 points per game. That is not to say Washington is not a good team on the road, because they are. However, the Wizards are allowing over 101 points per game on the road, and you can expect them to allow even more going against a superior team like Orlando playing on their home court. Orlando has covered the number in 5 of their last 7 games and I expect to see them win this game by 15-20 points.

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