The Jones Report: Phildelphia Eagles vs Arizona Cardinals Free Pick
Written January 18, 2009 by Nick Jones
Given the fact that these two teams have essentially the same record there aren’t too many people giving the Cardinals a chance in this game. This line opened having the Eagles as a -3 favorite and that line has now moved to -4 at the time of publishing. Both the Eagles and Arizona have 11 wins this season. They would also both have 7 losses this season except for the fact that the Eagles finished an overtime quarter in a tie during the NFL regular season.
The series between these two teams in a tight one at 11-11 overall with Arizona having the advantage by winning 7 out of the 11 games straight up on their home field. Having the home field advantage is going to be big for the Cardinals and should prevent the Eagles from having the same luck on third down conversions that they had against the likes of Minnesota and New York. ……Yes I know that those games were also on the road, but the fan base in Minnesota is nothing compared to what you see in Arizona. And Giants fans are pessimistic which means they aren’t making noise on third and short if their team is down. I know your probably thinking: “This guy is an idiot.” I challenge anyone with some sort of DVR or Tivo system to go back and review these games and prove me wrong.
Now the meat and potatoes on why Arizona is going to pull off the upset. These are several betting systems that favor the Cardinals. In an effort to keep things simple I have included the most important of these systems. The first system comes to play against road teams like the Philadelphia Eagles when they are off an upset win by 10 points or more as an underdog, if this road team has a winning percentage between 60-75% of their games on the season. This system is 58-27 ATS since 1983. The second system is to play on a home team like Arizona when they are revenging a same season loss against opponent, in a game in which both teams have a win percentage between 60% to 75%. This system is 36-11 ATS over the last 10 seasons.
When it comes to scoring the Eagles are being out performed by approximately 5 points per game. Defensively the season statistics do not tell the real story. The fact is Arizona’s defense has already shut down two of the league’s best running backs in DeAngelo Williams and Michael Turner. That being said I would not expect much out of Westbrook.
Let me tell you exactly how this game is going to play out. The Eagles are going to try their hardest to establish a run game early. Inevitably this will result in an early lead for the Cardinals. Come second half the Eagles will be forced to start throwing the ball more which means Arizona can concentrate on the pass instead of worrying about the run. This will only dig a larger hole. While I don’t think the Eagles are going to get shut out, I do think it is going to be low scoring for them. Now, that also being said, there is no chance that Arizona is going to blow the Eagles out the same way they did Carolina. The Free Pick is simple because the fact is, Arizona will win this game. Now if your willing to chance it a parlay with the Under may not be a bad move. Currently the best line available comes at a book that is known for having the best line when fading the public. Get Arizona +4 and the UNDER 47.5 at Bodog Sportsbook.
One Response to “The Jones Report: Phildelphia Eagles vs Arizona Cardinals Free Pick”
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Nice call on Arizona. Pretty much had it pegged.